88th Academy Awards: Fearless Forecast

Oscar pic

You don't need a crystal ball to predict the Oscar winners, as members of Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) consider the following: the choice of selected critics, industry observers, and media. Never underestimate the last one, as this was what brought Anne Hathaway her Oscar. (Tom Hooper's "Les Misérables" haven't started production, but many were eager to see Hathaway's depiction of Fantine. Talk about word of mouth.) Not a few complained about the lack of objectivity, but remember that the golden boy wouldn't be the ultimate prize. It's rather the opportunity to work in Hollywood. It will be foolish not to take it seriously unless one has a respectable career somewhere (e.g. Juliette Binoche).

Without further ado, let's make a fearless forecast:

Best Picture: The Big Short

"The Revenant" leads the race with 12 nominations, the most by any film. If past results will be an indicator, then this historical feature should win the top prize. It's not the case anymore. "The Big Short" won the Producers Guild of America (PGA) Award for Best Theatrical Motion Picture. Most movies that were honored in this category would win the Best Picture Oscar. Brad Pitt was the producer, the same guy who was behind "12 Years a Slave". (And Steve McQueen's period drama was the big winner two years ago.) Perhaps the Academy voters would overlook Pitt's acting, but they can honor him in the other categories. If Angelina Jolie can find the right material (to direct), then the media will have a field day.

Best Director: Alejandro González Iñárritu

Alejandro González Innaritu won the Directors Guild of America (DGA) Award for the second straight year. Whoever wins this prestigious award goes on to scoop the Academy Award for Best Director. This didn't happen in six occasions, and this year's ceremony won't mark the seventh time. "The Revenant" has the most nominations, so expect the film to win an Oscar in a few major categories. And the Mexican filmmaker winning two Oscars shouldn't come as a surprise. (Many believed that "Amores perros" should have won the Academy Award for Best Foreign Language Film.) Now is his time to shine.

Best Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio

He was one of the promising young actors in Tinseltown, but another actor was honored with the Oscar. There was no doubt about his talent, but some saw DiCaprio as not the kind of actor who wanted to keep a good PR with the media and his peers. And they believed this hurt his chances (for an Oscar). This year's list of nominees is impressive, with all but one playing real-life characters. (Matt Damon was beguiling and memorable in "The Martian", but the film was an adaptation of a bestselling novel.) Besides, DiCaprio is long overdue for an Academy Award. February 28 will have a different headline.

Best Actress: Brie Larson

This is not a case of which one is most deserving (for an Oscar). Hollywood is always looking for a young actress to be the next big thing. Brie Larson is 26 years of age. "Room" won the top prize at the Toronto International Film Festival. And Larson has an upcoming film. (The voting isn't over yet.) Cate Blanchett might have been more deserving, but she has two Oscars. It took Meryl Streep almost three decades before she won her third, so the Aussie actress has to wait. If the biographical film on Lucille Ball will push through, then she may have to prepare her thank-you speech soon.

Best Supporting Actor: Mark Ruffalo

This is the hardest category to predict. Sylvester Stallone won the Golden Globe, and his Rocky Balboa would mark the first (and probably the only) time that an actor was nominated for a lead and supporting roles for the same character. But Hollywood don't fancy another comeback. ("The Expendables" might do for now.) Mark Rylance has a few things going for him: he's the critics' choice, he'll likely win the British Film Academy Award, and he'll star in "The BFG", Steven Spielberg's upcoming summer flick. (Spielberg was overlooked for Best Director). If these won't be enough, then Mark Ruffalo will nab the Oscar. After all, "Spotlight" is up for six nominations. The movie also won the top prize at the SAG Awards.

Best Supporting Actress: Rooney Mara

Alicia Vikander won the SAG Award, but the Academy voters could sing a different tune. Kate Winslet, Golden Globe winner for “Steve Jobs”, has been in the news headlines lately. (She won the AACTA Award for Best Actress for "The Dressmaker".) Members of the British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) will show their patriotic side, which means Winslet can win her third British Film Academy Award. But the Academy voters will make up for their ommision of “Carol” from the Best Picture and Best Director categories. Expect Rooney Mara to receive her Oscar.

 

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